Новостные ленты в Эстонии всё чаще заполняются полными пессимизма фактами о спаде отечественной экономики, росте цен, ухудшении социального положения населения. В то же время правительство реформистки и «принцессы войны» Каи Каллас продолжает делать «хорошую мину при плохой игре».
Увы, всё намного хуже. «Игра» – прескверная, поскольку многое зависит не только от внешних обстоятельств, но и наглой прямолинейности и откровенной глупости, что скорее всего можно позволить себе лишь в расчёте на поддержку мощных «потусторонних» сил.
Ведь даже самые серьёзные эксперты в области экономики и финансов, политическая оппозиция (кроме партии EKRE и особенно беспартийного члена фракции этой партии в Рийгикогу сторонника консерватизма и юриста Варро Вооглайда) отделываются скорее констатацией печальной и угрожающей ситуации, но боятся поставить вопрос ребром, об ответственности. Одна из причин этого – большинство правительственной коалиции в Рийгикогу и откровенная её поддержка со стороны Канцлера права и Госсуда, посягающего по мнению многих даже на нарушение Конституции ЭР.
А это – следствие того, что всё глубже в госмашину и госуправление внедряются элементы коллективного тоталитаризма и авторитаризма с явными признаками диктатуры. Последнее подтверждает беспрецедентный пример – преследование министром внутренних дел и соцдемом (?!) Лаури Ляэнеметсом Православной Церкви Эстонии (Московский Патриархат) при том, что по Основному Закону государство и церковь разделены. За всем этим стоит правящая коалиция во главе со сторонницей ультра-глобализма – партией Реформ, вкупе с мнящим себя уже политическим дирижёром «всея» Эстонии – лидером национал-либеральной партии Isamaa Урмасом Рейнсалу.
Есть, конечно и серьёзные, профессиональные анализы, игнорирующие замешанную на жуткой русофобии государственную идеологию, ставшую помехой для честного разбирательства ситуации. Но академические труды воспринимаемы далеко не всеми. Поэтому решил предложить отрывок из статьи Урмаса Яаганта «(Об этом) таллинском соглашении Isamaa (и впрямь) не знает ничего» из еженедельника Eesti Ekspress (12 апреля 2024) в рамках новостной серии «РАДАР ПОЛИТИКИ». Автор – Урмас Яагант.
Ниже приводится перевод на русский язык третьей части этого материала, в которой раскрыта, пусть упрощённо, суть нынешней экономической политики правительства Каи Каллас.
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Чрезвычайно плохое состояние бюджета
Прогноз Минфина не принёс правительству того, чего оно ожидало – растущих налоговых поступлений и экономический рост. Нынче с финансами в стране просто всё страшнее, чем раньше.
Что случилось? По прогнозу, в этом году Эстонию ждёт нулевой рост. «На счету» правительства – дефицит, который превысит 3%, в 2025 году – уже 5%. Это – просто жутко. Важно признать: в качестве важного вопроса в Эстонии стали подчёркивать совмещение слишком больших затрат гоударства с индексированным ростом экономики. Мол, этот рост позволит автоматически наращивать затраты. Но таким образом (с индексация – прим. переводчика) существенно сложнее будут обеспечивать такой реальный рост доходов, который обеспечил бы исполнение задуманных расходов. (бюджетных – прим. переводчика).
Почему это важно? Упомянутый дефицит свыше 3% (между доходами и расходами – прим. переводчика) привлечёт внимание Брюсселя и в какой-то момент может привести к возбуждению дела (расследования) о нарушениях. И это – в отношении правительства, которое обещало обеспечить максимальное приближение расходов к доходам, то есть, сбалансированность бюджет, а значит избежать ситуации, когда спастись можно, живя взаймы (брать кредиты – прим. переводчика).
Что случится? Можно сколько угодно выкручиваться, но выбирать приходится между двумя позициями – повышение доходов за счёт налогов и/или значительное урезание расходов. И повышение налогов может быть лакомым куском, например, налог с оборота (продаж) или подоходный налог, и сокращения расходов могут быть крупными, например, на социальные нужды и тому подобное. Но чтобы добиться в этом успеха, надо использовать «ковш экскаватора», а не «скрести совком».
И что: так и делают? В целом – ответ: «нет». Если уж скверный налог на автомашину отвергается обществом, то что там – уменьшение пенсий. Да, такое отвергаемое видение может быть у отдельных политиков, у той же Каи Каллас, но решения даже в её партии, которую она возглавляет, зависят от куда большего числа людей. И уж точно не все из них будут с ней заодно.
Каков результат? Какие-то налоги повысят, какие-то снизят. Но, прежде всего, будет взят дополнительный кредит. Это даёт выигрыш времени. До следующего раза, когда всё повторится. А потом будут взяты новые кредиты, чтобы выиграть время уже перед очередными выборами. Тогда придёт новое правительство, которое будет осуществлять много бесполезного, а в итоге снова будут брать кредиты, чтобы выиграть ещё чуток времени…
Чем это заканчивается? В перспективе, лет через семь-десять в Таллине приземлится самолёт, на борту которого будут боссы МВФ (Международного Валютного Фонда – прим. переводчика). Они пристроются у компьютера нашего министра финансов, попросят пароли и сами станут перебирать бюджетную цифирь в Excel. На данный момент все указывает на то, что Эстония пройдёт такой путь до самого конца. Но ведь это не должно произойти».
***
Вместо комментария приведу цитату из интервью эстонского премьер-министра Каи Каллас и, как дополнение к её словам – первые строки стиха Михаила Лермонтова «И скучно, и грустно».Итак, в радиопередаче «Stuudios on peaminister» на Vikerraadioглава правительства пожаловалось на население страны: «Мне кажется, что общественность, журналисты и, конечно, оппозиционные политики, в действительности не понимают, что нам нужны эти усилия, чтобы делегация МВФ не приехала в Эстонию и не указывала нам, что продать, какой налог поднять и от чего отступиться». Беда-то в другом – всё оно, население понимает, но молчит и на свою голову терпит политика-лузера. Во всяком случае русские/русскоязычные жители Эстонии могут охарактеризовать ситуацию вокруг госбюджета, а значит и всей Эстонии, возможно и незавидной судьбы эстонского народа (не Каи Каллас, разумеется) лермонтовскими строками:
И скучно и грустно, и некому руку подать
В минуту душевной невзгоды…
Желанья!.. Что пользы напрасно и вечно желать?..
А годы проходят – все лучшие годы!
Димитрий Кленский,
переводчик и публикатор
Таллин, 15-17 апреля 2024
NB! Мнение публикатора может не совпадать с позицией редакции портала narod.ee
Ниже приводится текст оригинала (на эстонском языке):
JAAGANTI POLIITIKARADAR
(Sellest) Tallinna kokkuleppest ei tea Isamaa (küll) midagi
***
Erakordselt halb eelarveseis
Rahandusministeeriumi prognoos ei toonud valitsusele seda, mida oodati – kasvavaid maksulaekumisi ja majanduskasvu. Nüüd on riigi rahandusega kõik lihtsalt veel hullem kui varem.
Mis juhtus? Eestit ootab prognoosi järgi sel aastal null-kasv. Valitsuse defitsiit tuleb üle 3%, 2025. aastal üle 5%. See on lihtsalt julm. Ühe olulise asjana on hakatud rõhutama, et Eestil on liiga palju kulusid indekseeritud majanduskasvu külge. Niipea kui läheb paremaks, hakkavad kulud automaatselt kerkima. Nii on oluliselt keerulisem tulusid kuludele järgi tõmmata.
Miks see on oluline? Üle 3% defitsiiti tõmbab Brüsseli tähelepanu ja ühel hetkel toob ka rikkumismenetluse alustamise. Ja seda valitsusele, kes lubas liikuda lähemale eelarve tasakaalule ning panna pidurit laenuvõtmisele.
Mis saab? Vingerda, palju tahad, aga on ikka ainult kaks asja – maksutõusud ja/või suured kärped. Ja maksutõusud saavad olla suured ampsud nagu käibe- või tulumaks ning kärped saavad olla suured ampsud nagu sotsiaalkulud jms. Et see seis paremaks saada, on vaja tõsta kopaga, mitte kraapida kühvliga.
Kas seda tehakse? Üldine vastus on “ei”. Kui juba niru automaks on ebapopulaarne, mis siis rääkida näiteks pensionide vähendamisest. Jah, üksikutel poliitikutel võib olla sellist nägemist, Kaja Kallasel see võib olla, aga asjad isegi tema juhitavas erakonnas sõltuvad palju rohkematest inimestest. Ja neist ei tule kõik kindlasti taoliste asjadega kaasa.
Mis on tulemus? Mingit maksu tõstetakse, midagi kärbitakse. Aga eelkõige võetakse laenu juurde. See annab aega. Kuni järgmise korrani, mil ollakse sama valiku ees. Ja siis võetakse laenu, et võita aega kuni valimisteni. Siis tuleb uus valitsus, kes nipet-näpet teeb, aga üldiselt võtab laenu, et võita aega…
Millega see lõpeb? Kuskil seitsme-kümne aasta perspektiivis maandub Tallinnas üks lennuk, kus pardal IMF-i tuusad. Nad istuvad rahandusministri arvuti taha, küsivad parooli ja hakkavad eelarve-Excelit ise ringi tõstma. Praegu viitab kõik, et Eesti käib selle tee lõpuni läbi. Aga see ei pea nii minema.
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